|April 5th, 2012
- Emerging markets more than quadruple in size. Emerging markets will be both a battleground for suppliers and a source of great strength with South Asia accounting for the majority of growth, rising from 1 GW in 2011 to 4.5 GW in 2017. However, ASEAN, Africa and South America take the reins from 2017 to 2022, hurtling toward gigawatt status.
- Utility-scale application segment grows. In large emerging markets like China, utility-scale solar will gain as conditions favor fewer, larger-scale projects that allow more control over financing and regulatory factors. This segment will grow from 6.3 GW globally in 2011 to 13.8 GW in 2017.
- Oversupply still a possibility. Even the boom of 2011 was not sufficient to utilize all of the world’s module capacity, which reached 50 GW and pushed prices down to $1/W. With China’s 12th Five-Year plan calling for major expansions in solar capacity, global markets will still see strong downward price pressure.
- Securitization boosts smaller installations. Asset-backed securities are spurring growth of the small-scale segment in the U.S. residential and commercial markets. Securitization and “renewable bonds,” which have been tested in the past by SunPower (in Italy), and Wells Fargo (in New Jersey), are likely to see widespread growth in 2012 or 2013. Expect major commercial banks like Citigroup to lead this effort.
The report, titled “Market Size Update 2012: The Push to a Post-Subsidy Solar Industry,” is part of the Lux Research Solar Systems and the Lux Research Solar Components Intelligence services.About Lux ResearchLux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.